submitted by turtlecane to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
Space exploration and colonization is an inevitable reality in the future. NASA and private corporations like SpaceX and Blue Origin already have the technology to launch missions to other planets, but they are taking their time to raise funds and ensure 100 percent success.
SpaceX says it will land people on Mars by 2024.
The richest man in the world and Founder of Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos, says he will create a large moon colony with or without NASA’s help.
Bitcoin with its instant, decentralized, and secure transactions that travel at the speed of light is obviously the perfect currency for space, but there are some downsides.
Here, we’ll explore the benefits of using Bitcoin in space as well as the caveats.
The cost of “launching” Bitcoin into space is simply the transaction fee, usually less than $1, plus however much it costs for the high powered antennas to communicate with the internet across long distances in space.
Compare this to fiat cash money, which would be impractical to launch into space due to the costs of rocket fuel. Launching a $20 bill into space costs $22. Perhaps launching $100 bills into space will work, but the fee would still be hard to stomach, and residents of the moon or other planets will not have any small bills or coins.
Perhaps a fiat system could be set up with all the $100 bills stored in a central repository and then people use digital ledgers to keep track, but why go through all that trouble if Bitcoin already solves this problem.
Decentralized currency will be important in space. For example, if Jeff Bezos decides to leave the Earth and become the emperor of the moon, there could be backlash from Earth governments.
This may sound outlandish, but it is inevitable that once colonization of other planets begins new countries will eventually form that have no territory on Earth. In the moon colony example, if they have USD bank accounts, they could find that all their cash becomes instantly frozen at the first sign of political trouble.
It will be just about impossible for a country on the moon or another planet to get their money back in the event of an account seizure. Just like Donald Trump says make America great again, whoever is President in the future could say make Earth great again, and seize all of the bank accounts of interplanetary nations in order to subsidize Earth’s economy. Space nations will need Bitcoin in order to conduct interplanetary commerce without the threat of account seizures.
The problem with centralized currency becomes even more severe for the space cowboys, people who go off into space and decide to do whatever they want to do. If they break a law in any jurisdiction, which could be as simple as taking their ship off-planet without permission, they would have their bank accounts frozen.
The only option for rogue space adventurers is to carry currency with them onboard, since if their bank is frozen, and they are depending on the bank, they will either die in space or have to go back to their planet and get arrested.
Due to the scarcity of cash in space, the only good option for space cowboys would be gold or Bitcoin. Gold is heavy, and would cost tremendous fees in the form of rocket fuel everytime they liftoff from a planet. Also, holding a large amount of gold on a spaceship would make them easy targets for space pirates. Bitcoin would never cost anything during liftoff, since it is on the internet, and it cannot be stolen unless the private key is given over.
Further, imagine if someone gets a job from an employer on another planet, which will be quite common in the interplanetary economy. Workers would likely never even meet their bosses, and the workers perhaps would not want the native currency on their employer’s planet, since they would never be able to physically own it.
Bitcoin can be personally owned no matter where people are in space, since Bitcoin is cryptographically secure, and possession of the private key provides full ownership, in the same way, holding cash in your wallet is full ownership.
As is already being witnessed on Earth, Bitcoin is a universal currency. Instead of making a complicated FOREX system in space wrought with account seizures and third parties, it makes much more sense to just use Bitcoin. A space economy fueled by Bitcoin would be far more liquid and efficient than a fiat currency economy.
There are caveats to using Bitcoin in space due to the speed of light. Bitcoin transactions would only be able to travel across space at the speed of light. This means it takes 1.28 seconds for Bitcoin to reach the moon from the Earth, three minutes to reach Mars, 33 minutes to reach Jupiter, and 67 minutes to reach Saturn. Double these times and add 10 minutes for the average Bitcoin transaction confirmation time on other planets.
We mention Jupiter and Saturn because they have numerous moons that are ripe for colonization and could be a hotspot for human civilization in the future.
The transaction times to other planets, even for Saturn which is over an hour, is not a major issue. Even if transactions take a long time to propagate to Earth and confirm, they would still be confirmed. Perhaps people on other planets should put the maximum sensible transaction fees to ensure that transactions confirm as quickly as possible once received.
Clearly, Bitcoin will no longer be instantaneous in space, since transactions would not even show up on the block explorer until the transaction propagates to Earth and back, but it will work.
Mining Bitcoin on other planets is a major dilemma. On the moon, mining Bitcoin will still be quite doable, since the few seconds delay is not going to prevent miners from striking blocks on the moon, it will just put them at a slight disadvantage.
Mining on Mars is where problems will begin. If a miner on Mars strikes a block, and someone on Earth finds the block in the 3 minutes it takes the Martian block to reach Earth, the Martian miner will not get paid. Some truly stubborn miners may mine Bitcoin on Mars, but they will be at an extreme disadvantage, and they will not profit nearly as much as Earth miners.
On the moons of Jupiter and Saturn, mining Bitcoin becomes intractable. In the 33 minutes and 67 minutes respectively it takes Bitcoin transactions to reach Earth, the Jupiter and Saturn miners will be disenfranchised 100 percent of the time. This actually makes Bitcoin centralized, at least on a planetary scale since whichever planet has the most hash rate will get all the block rewards.
This is just an Earth-centric view, however. Since Bitcoin is decentralized, another planet could generate 50 percent or more of the hash rate and disenfranchise all of the miners on Earth. To prevent this sort of thing from happening, perhaps it would be best to have Bitcoin Jupiter, Bitcoin Saturn, Bitcoin Earth, and so forth.
Versions of Bitcoin for different planets is especially important, considering that a planet that achieves a significant hash rate, but not a majority hash rate, would be dealing with constant forks.
For example, miners on the moons of Saturn may verify transactions and put them into blocks, only to have their chain orphaned whenever a transmission is received from Earth. If every planet is using the same version of Bitcoin, it would be much less confusing and more secure to only have miners on one of the planets.
Since it will be many years before colonization of other moons and planets becomes a reality, perhaps the Bitcoin developers will have time to optimize Bitcoin for use in space, to remove these caveats and ensure Bitcoin functions perfectly in space.
“But why not just measure it in £££ - that’s far less complicated?!”
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BTCUSD analysis: Bitcoin forecastsubmitted by Nick_Kiros to u/Nick_Kiros [link] [comments]
Experimental analysis of BTCUSD trends by means of Boston Consulting Group matrixTelegram channel — trading signals btc, eth, xrp
Today, I’ll go on to analyze the BTCUSD pair, as all the other altcoins depend on it.
A couple of days ago, there was quite and important fundamental event that was hardly responded by the crypto market. It is about the G20 meeting that was held in Argentina.
One of the most important agenda items was digital economy. As you know, they were discussing cryptocurrencies and the future of the crypto market. Following up on this meeting there was drafted a declaration. At first sight, it doesn’t seem to present any sensational solutions. However, the leaders of G-20 member-countries have admitted that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology has a huge potential and its development is important for global economy. On the other hand, they have again emphasized the officials’ concern about poor regulation of the cryptocurrency market. Here, a particular emphasis is put on the risks, associated with money laundering and the development of illegal markets, as well as terrorist financing.
What does it mean?
It is a good signal for alarmists, who have been already disappointed in cryptocurrencies and dumped their deposits. Nobody will ruin the crypto market. Cryptocurrencies, as a type of investment assets will always exist in one form or another. What’s the point in killing the goose that lays golden eggs?! The hype around the crypto market turned into investors those, who had never thought about investing in any assets. Economic participation of people has sharply increased. There appeared whole industrial sector that became almost national idea for particular countries. It is far easier to legalize cryptocurrency and impose taxation, rather than to fight with the products of digital economy. The Group of 20 were discussing the issue of developing a taxation system for international digital services. It means only one thing - one way or another, the whole cryptocurrency market will be split into two parts; the first one will be completely transparent not only for users but for public authorities as well. There will be institutional investors and banks, along with corporations. There, the cryptocurrency will be completely integrated into banking services and become publicly available and user-friendly. Everything will be legalized and regulated. The second part will become a part of shadow economy and will be under continuous pressure from regulators and governmental authorities. The users of such cryptocurrencies will be automatically recognized as financiers of terrorism and accomplices in money laundering. The users of such cryptocurrencies will face potential imprisonment and international prosecution.
Even if it sounds unreal now, but if the G-20 are seriously discussing the cryptocurrency matter, I’m sure that the country leaders will join their efforts to bring this scenario into reality. So, I won’t be surprised if, in a few years, there will be another bitcoin fork that will be recognized by the Group of 20, included into gold and forex reserve and will become a new payment means; and the old bitcoin will become illegal and will be traded secretly.
But now, it is still an assumption and won’t come true in the new future.
I’d like to perform technical analysis of the current bitcoin market sentiment to find out what is going to be in the near future.
In my previous analysis a week ago, I offered a long-term forecast for the next 10 months, suggesting the major target at 2000 USD to be reached around October, 2019.
I still believe that the bottom at 2000 USD looks quite justified, in terms of both fundamental and technical analysis.
This scenario can be real in fact, if bitcoin will be moving in the downward channel with a corridor of about 3000 USD. Previously, BTC could be moving faster in a few days, but in the current crypto market situation, such a narrow range looks reasonable. However, Bitcoin has never moved as it was expected by the majority of traders.
I compared in detail the current market situation with the Bitcoin drop in 2014 and noticed some regularities that I emphasized in the last forecast for bitcoin future price.
If you look closer, you’ll see from the chart above that the bullish trend had been speeding up since August, 2014, and reached its peak in December.
I wouldn’t try to fit this into particular dates or months, but if I try to draw a direct parallel with the Bitcoin current fall, it should start falling faster.
To better explain my idea, I suggest you look at the chart above.
Many of you are likely to be familiar with the BCG matrix, is a corporate planning tool created by Boston Consulting Group. Long story short, the matrix describes the life-cycle of a product and its position in the market.
I won’t describe it in detail here. I just had an idea to analyze the price trend like a product. A trend is traded in the market like an idea, and each trader votes for it by means of their money, supporting or opposing the idea.
Based on this assumption, a trend, like a product, will pass through four stages:
In the given example, it is the green box that highlights the zone of the steady bearish trend. It was accepted and admitted by the market, and everybody supports the idea of Bitcoin drop. Everybody likes it and thumbs it up. The next stage is the developed stage, or Cash cow. That is when investors begin to gain the yield from their product and the investment is paying off. It the blue circle in the chart above. There, it is clear that manipulators are starting to buy out and get the cheap biotin, making up their funds spent on dumps.
A sure sign of this stage is incredibly high trade volumes.
The last stage is recession, or Poor dog. Such a dog is weak and won’t live for long. The product at this stage is not appealing or demanded. Interpreting this idea, there is a clear red circle in the chart above. Market participants don’t believe in the bearish trend any longer and don’t support the idea by their money. The funders are not interested in promoting this idea as its development costs exceed the potential profit, or it may at all generate negative cash return.
Therefore, the Bitcoin bearish trend, like a product, is leaving the market, being replaced by a different idea.
Drawing the same parallel with the ongoing bearish trend, you see that the Problem child stage has been already finished. Due to the strong bearish trend, this stage was lasting for a particularly long time, despite the price drop from 20 000 USD down to 6000 USD. The candlesticks clearly display strong volatility and the buyers’ resistance.
Eventually, following the long fight, market gave up and the bearish entered the stage of Star. It is clear that, due to the longtime resisting, the bulls stepped back, having lost quite much; and each crypto market participant believed in the bearish idea. The stage was developing very fast, and so, it ended quite soon. And it is clear that the BTCUSD downtrend trend is entering the Cash cow stage now.
As I’ve already said, at this stage, manipulators take an advantage of the market inertia and start “milking” the cow, as the marketing specialists call it; traders would say, trick out of hamsters’ money.
It is clear from the 15-minute BTCUSD price chart above that there are frequent buyouts; that is investors are gaining profits from the invested cash. Currently, while weak hands are losing their positions, the whales are buying out cheap bitcoins. It will go on until it becomes clear that the idea of the Bitcoin drop has been finished, and the bears don't have any more power to press the market down.
Most likely, at this stage, manipulators will repeat the same trick and start selling the bitcoins, they’ve already bought, to create stronger panic. People are extremely nervous, and so, manipulators won’t have to dump much.
If you gain look at the monthly BTCUSD price chart above, you see that the next wave is likely to start in February, 2019. Based on the depth of the plunge, the level at 2000 USD is such an irresistible barrier, which many will start from. I assume that manipulators anticipate this situation and will make their final buyout not going as low as this level. In the volume profile chart, it will look like a hump that I outlined by the red ark. After that, the bearish trend will start exhausting, amid trading flat and weak attempts to draw the price up to 4000 USD. The Bitcoin downtrend will enter the stage of Poor dog.
This period will be dangerous because of extremely low trade volumes, allowing the manipulators to perform various tricks and attempts to crash the market in order to buy more bitcoins at the lowest price level. There is likely to be another slide down before the bearish trend of 2018-2019 will finally end. The final drop is likely to be followed by a new idea, supporting the BTCUSD growth.
The whole cycle will start from the beginning. First, funders will heat the market up, selling the idea to hamsters. Next, supported by the market natural growth, they will launch the rocket up rather high, where they’ll start gaining cash. But that is another story; it is called Bitcoin uptrend of 2019-20??
Unfortunately, the manipulators haven’t yet finished developing their bearish trend, and we’ll have to wait.
That is my updated BTCUSD global scenario.
I wish you good luck and good profits!
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